I agree that the slam is not 50-50...its chances mean, where the cards lie can it make on best defence and the answer is it has 0% play. It's bid properly though on the assumption you have some ground rules on weak 2's and stick to them
Should be 6spades,a diamond and hopefully 5 clubs. You say the club suit may not be holding up but with partner having
Q - It's 6 tricks
xx - 3-2 split/ or Q dropping from a short hand
xxx - Q should drop
So really opposite any club holding it has play
It's hands like this and lots others where i feel a specific queen ask convention is needed...any ideas?
Back to it being 50/50. That's more a statment of how often the cards will lie favourably(splits, onside etc). The slam needs a mis-defence to make => 0% chance to play it. Any contract has a play (almost dont be picky) if you count the chance of oppo mis-defending.
Even supposing we do it isnt 50/50
AK on lead chance= 25%
A on lead chance = 25%
lead from Jt9 etc = number
lead 4th highest/mud=number
underleads K = <25%
leads other major= chance (always right leading unbid majors)
sure thats more than 50....
or just on suit leads it's 25% going clean straight to the cleaners
But playing vs the big sugar daddies of poland please bid it (and even worse ones

)
i will beBut come on playing against a ****(poor

) team that leads AK against you for a 10 imp swing out you would kill youself
and if it was a proper tight match and then this comes in 6h off a cashing ace king do you really want to show your head?
But i talk too much and am in love with slams. I was gutted didnt have any to bid all weekend. And well your's made so good call