Bridge Hand

Nothing too taxing here just a slam bid and misplayed at the scottish schools. There was no relavant bidding by the opposition. I could tell you it but it would probably only lead to confusion in the hopes that it could contribute to the correct line.

You are in 6S

AKTx
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AKxxx
Txxx

86xx
AKQxx
x
Axx

Lead: King of clubs

I'm fairly sure i know what the right line is now but would be interested in see what other people have to say in case there is a better option there.

Nice hand. I'll have a go
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win AC
Cash 1 round of spades
Play AKQ of hearts pitching 3 clubs.
small to AD,
Rough a diamond
Back to table with AS (2nd round of trumps)
Rough a diamond high
Rough a club to get back to table
Play diamonds from top.

This line only works if spades are split 3-2 and diamonds are split 4-3 (or 4-2 but with 3rd spade in same hand as diamond shortage).

Probably not the best line but I'm afraid I'm not clever enough to come up with anything better. Would I have made it out of interest?

I havent exactly figured out my line yet, but Davids has a slight hitch. Unless he cashes a round of spades with the 8! he will not be in the right hand to play three rounds of hearts, and he is a tad short on the old entry front.

The spades probably need to be 3-2 otherwise I think there is too many problems with communications and the usual slight issue that you are probably short of tricks. Assuming thus the I would win the club and play the AK of spades. The I would play AD ruff a diamond, and play the hearts pitching the clubs. You then ruff a club and cash the K of diamonds pitching a club a diamond ruff now hopefully sets up the suit. At this point I realise even if it does, if the hand on the right can overuff whatever you ruff in dummy then you are screwed with a loser in hand. Therefore maybe chasing the spades is not the best idea. So you win the club, cross to one round of spades and play the AD, ruff a diamond. Then cash your three rounds of hearts pitching the clubs and then ruff a club. play the KD and then try to ruff a diamond, if the hand on the right follows you could be in trouble because there may be a trump promotion when you are over-ruffed by the hand on your left. If the hand on your right follows you are ok now. I think this is probably the best line though. It does though turn out not to be as good a slam as it first looks. I think a 4-3 diamond break OR a 4-4 heart break as well as a 3-2 spade break is required. The first two can't be combined though I dont think, therefore either way it is less than 50% I think.

Just to answer your question David, it probably depends on what tournament you are in, you probably would have gotten away with leading from the wrong hand at the weekend which does in fact increase you chances slightly!

I'm fairly sure no one would make it with trumps QJ9x offside (groan)
I'm having trouble following Alex's second line mainly through bad memory on my part though it sounds quite good. Ill wait a wee bit more till I post what I though the right answer might be but probably isnt.

As for it being less than 50% im not too sure. In looking at the suits in isolation probably but if one suit breaks normally that makes it more likely that the other will to. Im not sure how much this changes the odds. I can tel you for sure that it is cold as long as trumps are 32, diamonds 43 and hearts 44 or 53

Oops - yes I see the flaw in my line. I actually changed it at the last minute by cutting and pasting the order and didn't read my post through as I got a phone call at work. Honest gov!

Revised to my original plan:

win AC
Play AKQ of hearts pitching 3 clubs.
small to AD,
Rough a diamond
Back to table with AS
Cash 2nd round of trumps
Rough a diamond high
Rough a club to get back to table
Play diamonds from top.

Alex - trying to understand your suggestions. I think your first attempt you come down to the following 2 card finish (in hand)? This only works if 3rd spade is in the same hand as 4 hearts as you will be overruffed?

T
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x
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xx
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Your second attempt seems similar to my line albeit with a slightly different order?

The first line I come down to:

10
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xx
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x
xx
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needing to take two of the last three tricks, with the boss trump and a diamond outstanding. This would require therefore the hand on the right either to have 4 diamonds, and four hearts OR not having the boss spade. If the boss spade is on your left then it doesnt matter how the suits break exactly (beyond the assumed breaks needed). So maybe that is the best line. All you need is three spades on the left and the diamond break OR the hand on the right to have 3 diamonds, 5 hearts and 3 spades (which would work as the clubs only need to break 4-2). This may all seem a little confusing as I am writing it down as soon as it pops in my head in no particular order. One of the mathematicions can do the mathematicioning.

What are the chances of making the contract on a 5-2 diamond break aswell, pretty minimal to none I would expect. When the club break also has to be put into the equation though the odds must be less than 50/50, even though a singleton QC on left won't automatically put you down. I suppose a singleton club and 5 diamonds on the left may give the contract a reasonable chance, but then that also assumes the hearts dont break 6-2, unlikely as it may seem with the breaks the way would be more likely. The contract is surely less than 50/50 with all these added odds.

This has turned out to be a remarkebly interesting hand actually, it looked a good slam on the face of it (over 50/50 is usually a good slam for me), but it hasn't tuned out that way really.

Also a pity we dont get three days to analyse the hand at the table.

So, are you going to give us the full deal Frazer? I want to know if we would have made it

the contract is cold simply by wnning the first round of clubs. Playing diamonds once and then ruffing followed by running hearts throwing clubs. After this a spade to the AK followed by another diamond ruff(setting them up) and a club ruff home and playing dimaonds from the top will bring the contract in.
Of course this requires 32 Spades, 34 diamonds and 35, 44 hearts.

No one would have made the contract due to thr QJxx being offside.

Alexs line seems good put im not sure how well it fares when you take into account easts ability to sometimes discard on the 3rd round of diamonds.