Another interesting hand, a play problem

[phil_20686]

-
K95x
Q98xx
AJTx

KJT9x
Q876
-
KQxx

1s x 2d p
2h p 4h p
p x AP

lead of a small club

[Arcticon-Tiger]

Do we just post what we think the answer is in a reply, or keep it to ourselves? I've narrowed down my answer to a few possible options; when I get round to calculating the percentages i'll have it

[phil_20686]

put it up obviously. There are many lines and i went wrong at the table - at least in that my line didn't work.

[Arcticon-Tiger]

It's a very interesting hand. Someone's got to go first; it might as well be me...

The first thing I want to know is the meaning of the double of 1 spade. If it's a "tolerance of the other three suits" double this could be good news as it suggests a decent split in your ruffing suits. If it shows 4 hearts it might not be so good, but at least you know where they are. If it's the Aberdeen double you're in trouble, as it could mean anything as long as West has 12+ points, and it will be difficult to place cards - an illustration, I think, of how vastly under-rated the Aberdeen double is.

My logic is that if I want to cross-ruff my way to ten tricks, I'll need to do it with all my ruffs, never getting over-ruffed, as there is a maximum of two top tricks in clubs. That is never going to happen. (It requires both spades AND diamonds to fall 4-4, AND clubs to break 3-2 or 2-3) Thus I would win the first trick in hand with the King and lead the Jack of spades. Worst case scenario is East wins with the Queen and returns a heart to the ace, with West drawing another heart round, won in hand. In this case it is very unlikely East has the Ace of spades, otherwise what did West double on? Not the AK of diamonds or presumably he'd have led King for count or something similar. Of course, by now I know if the hearts break. I run the ten of spades to set up what will hopefully be two spade winners. If West covers, I ruff. If the hearts broke, I cash the King, ruff a diamond and run my spades and clubs. If they didn't, I think the 4-1 break would have the 4 on my left. Having seen two, I would still cash the King of hearts, then the Ace of clubs, playing winners until West has had enough and ruffs. In this case I need the spade break. Ten tricks is reached via:

4 clubs, 2 spades, 2 heart tricks and 2 ruffs, or
3 clubs, 3 spades, 2 heart tricks and 2 ruffs.

If East doesn't return a heart after winning the Queen of spades, it frees up the chance of more ruffs, unless it is a club return to find West had a singleton (which can't be the case if the double was tolerance for every other suit), and West ruffs, but that increases the chances of a kind heart break.
If West has the Queen of spades I play through him to set up (at least) two winners in spades. Granted there is a remote chance of a diamond trick with all those ruffing possibilities flying around, but spades is the only prospective work suit, as the club suit provides a prospective total of four tricks once the hearts are gone.

OK Phil, that's my line (a reasonable choice if I do say so myself) - now tell me what I should have done

P.s. I reserve my right to scrap this line if new information about those doubles comes to my attention